The USCIS Ombudsman conducted a teleconference today to discuss the H-1B lottery process. Although nothing groundbreaking was discussed, they did provide some previously unavailable data.
First, we know that USCIS selects more than 85,000 petitions in the lottery on the basis that a certain number will ultimately be withdrawn, denied, or revoked. The goal is to end up with 85,000 approvals at the end of the process. USCIS shared that for FY 2019, they modified their target numbers and selected 113,000 petitions this year. 27,100 master’s cap petitions (ie 7,100 extra) and 85,900 regular cap petitions (20,900 extra). Last year, they selected a total of 98,000 petitions with a breakdown of 23,500 master’s cap and 74,500 regular cap. USCIS increased the number of petitions selected by 15% based on historical data, particularly taking into account the increase in denials that occurred in FY 2018.
USCIS also provided the breakdown of petitions filed in the master’s cap vs the regular cap for each year from FY 2014:
| Master’s cap | Regular cap | |
| FY19 | 95,885 | 94,213 |
| FY18 | 87,380 | 111,080 |
| FY17 | 70,238 | 166,206 |
| FY16 | 50,724 | 182,249 |
| FY15 | 40,518 | 132,063 |
| FY14 | 30,641 | 93,489 |
USCIS also provided the breakdown of petitions not selected in the master’s cap vs the regular cap for each year from FY 2014:
| Master’s cap | Regular cap | |
| FY19 | 32,461 | 44,637 |
| FY18 | 36,948 | 63,512 |
| FY17 | 30,541 | 107,903 |
| FY16 | 17,171 | 116,802 |
| FY15 | 8,311 | 65,020 |
| FY14 | 1,375 | 20,755 |
Based on this data, and if I’m doing my math correctly, in FY2019, 36,324 of the master’s cap petitions actually were selected under the regular cap, leaving 49,576 spots for non-masters petitions.
USCIS is looking to revise the lottery process by establishing an electronic registration program. This was included in the Department of Homeland Security’s Spring Regulatory Agenda. The proposed rule is scheduled to be published in July 2018, but during the call it was discussed that the rule-making process is behind schedule. This makes it unlikely that the new process could be implemented in time for next year’s lottery.